The most recent olive growing seasons have been challenging because of the unprecedented way in which they are unfolding. All of this is due to the behavior of the olive tree in relation to the climatic situation that surrounds it, not only in terms of rainfall, but also in the form of high temperatures, combined with wind activity during flowering.
If in general terms olive oils account for only 1.3 percent of the total animal and vegetable fats consumed on the planet (1.45 if we refer only to vegetable fats), the situation we are describing has led to the fact that in a season like the current one, for the first time in recent history, the ratio between olive oils and animal and vegetable oils and fats does not even reach 1 percent, that is, out of every 100 kg of oils and fats consumed on the planet, less than 1 kg will be olive oils.
The fact is that, first of all, the weather and then the reality of the campaign itself are considerably reducing the supply of olive oils on the international scene. This situation is occurring to a greater or lesser extent in the 66 countries that produce the liquid gold, as the great Homer once called it.
The most reliable world forecasts indicated that production could reach 2.6 million tons. However, a generalized decrease in the industrial yield, of 2 points on average, even maintaining the fruit production forecasts in terms of weight, would reduce the supply of olive oil by more than 250 thousand tons. This would immediately reduce olive oil consumption in the 198 countries that currently demand it. This means that for the first time in recent history, olive oil consumption will fall below 325 grams per person per year.
The stability of this trend is being helped by the current weather situation, which has not yet changed to a more favorable cycle for the crop. All this will have a direct impact on the current quotations at origin of this noble product. Then we are still directly exposed to some other effect of unprecedented values for the immediate future of the environment that surrounds us.